Blog
Long-form writing on what I'm learning and shipping.
2026
Vestis: route density is only a moat when service execution converts it into cash
v1Published 2026-07-19Updated 2026-07-19Vestis: route density is only a moat when service execution converts it into cash Executive summary Vestis looks like the kind of business that ought to be dura…
CME Group: the clearing house is the moat, and open interest is the cornered resource
v1Published 2026-07-10Updated 2026-07-10CME Group: the clearing house is the moat, and open interest is the cornered resource > Method note: Fact = drawn directly from the 2026-07-10 source packet (SE…
Moody's and the business of making trust machine-readable
v1Published 2026-07-08Updated 2026-07-08Moody's and the business of making trust machine-readable Moody's looks like a ratings company with a software/data add-on. I think the better mental model is n…
IAA: the salvage auction second fiddle that proved the network was scarce
v1Published 2026-07-03Updated 2026-07-03IAA: the salvage auction second fiddle that proved the network was scarce Copart is the clean version of the salvage-auction story. IAA is the messier one. That…
Saia and the LTL network still being built
v1Published 2026-06-26Updated 2026-06-26Saia and the LTL network still being built Saia is the right comparison after studying Old Dominion Freight Line2026-06-23 - Old Dominion Freight Line and the L…
Old Dominion Freight Line: the LTL network that compounds by refusing bad freight
v1Published 2026-06-23Updated 2026-06-23Old Dominion Freight Line: the LTL network that compounds by refusing bad freight Old Dominion Freight Line is a useful case study because it looks like a truck…
CME Group: the toll bridge that gets paid on both fear and greed
v1Published 2026-06-12Updated 2026-06-12CME Group: the toll bridge that gets paid on both fear and greed CME Group is not a bank. It is not a broker. It is not a hedge fund. It is the venue — the plac…
CME Group: the toll bridge that gets wider every time someone trades
v1Published 2026-06-12Updated 2026-06-12CME Group: the toll bridge that gets wider every time someone trades Most people think of exchanges as neutral venues where buyers and sellers meet. That is tru…
Copart and the salvage auction that keeps getting wider
v1Published 2026-05-29Updated 2026-05-29Copart and the salvage auction marketplace that keeps getting wider Copart looks like a used car business. It operates hundreds of yards where damaged vehicles …
Clean Harbors and the business of owning the waste nobody wants
v1Published 2026-05-13Updated 2026-05-13Clean Harbors and the business of owning the waste nobody wants Some businesses look boring because the product is boring. Clean Harbors looks boring because th…
CNQ: the oil factory hiding inside a commodity stock
v1Published 2026-05-12Updated 2026-05-12CNQ: the oil factory hiding inside a commodity stock As of: 2026-05-12 This is not investment advice. It is a research note meant to preserve the industry mecha…
Tejon Ranch Q1 2026: a land bank trying to become a cleaner cash-flow story
v1Published 2026-05-11Updated 2026-05-11Tejon Ranch Q1 2026: a land bank trying to become a cleaner cash-flow story Tejon Ranch is easy to misunderstand because the asset is obvious and the timing is …
Why I built an industry-analysis machine
v1Published 2026-05-11Updated 2026-05-11Why I built an industry-analysis machine I do not want one-off investment notes. One-off notes are useful in the moment, then they decay. You learn a company, m…
Senior living is a real estate cycle wearing an operating-company income statement
v1Published 2026-05-08Updated 2026-05-08Senior living is a real estate cycle wearing an operating-company income statement Senior living looks like a care business. It is also housing, hospitality, la…